| 2026-10-19 | Glassnode research team, Glassnode (BTC Market Pulse Week 43)Quiet, range-bound market: dip held just above $80K (range floor). Selling has eased but spot/ETF buyers have not returned; perp takers net sellers; options paying up for downside. No directional call. | short | Neutral | $80.0k – $85.0k |
| 2026-10-15 | Coinbase Institutional + Glassnode, Coinbase Institutional / Glassnode (Charting Crypto Q4 2026)Outlook 'constructive, with reasons for near-term caution'. BTC moved from bottoming into early recovery in Q3 despite Fed resuming tightening. NUPL back in Optimism/Anxiety band (not stretched); dormant supply grew through the rally. No explicit price target in page text (scenarios in PDF, not read). | medium | Neutral | – |
| 2026-10-14 | Glassnode research team, Glassnode (The Week On-chain: Boxed In)BTC boxed in under cost basis of last two years' buyers. Resistance: 6-12m cohort cost basis ~$88K, 1-2y cohort ~$100K. Support: US spot ETF cost basis ~$81.5K, $80K Binance bid block, True Market Mean ~$78K. Close >$88K with ETF inflows = demand back; break <$80K puts $78K in play. Risks: ETF outflows (~$760M since Oct 7 after ~$3B inflow Sep 21-Oct 6), hot Sept CPI (3.7%/2.6% core), possible 2nd Fed hike Oct 28, midterms Nov 3. Positive: LTH realized losses down ~85% from Aug 12 peak; bear never closed below Realized Price. | short | Neutral | $78.0k – $88.0k |
| 2026-10-14 | XWIN Research Japan (CryptoQuant contributor), CryptoQuant'Cautious optimism': October local low (~$80K on Oct 8) may already be in. Apparent demand, negative most of 2026, recovered to near-neutral; exchange reserves fell 2.726M -> 2.68M BTC since Sep 20; whales hold >3M BTC. Confirmation needs sustained ETF inflows and stronger US spot buying. | short | Bullish | $80.0k |
| 2026-10-12 | Michael Saylor, Strategy (MSTR)No new price forecast found. Flow signal: smallest 2026 buy (250 BTC @ ~$86,194) week to Oct 12; holdings 848,250 BTC at $75,444 avg. Buying resumed late Aug ('We're back'); in May Saylor said some BTC could be sold in 2026 for obligations. Long-standing $21M/BTC-by-2046 framing (per CoinGecko roundup). | long | Bullish | – |
| 2026-10-01 | Alex Saunders, CitigroupRaised 12-month base case to $113K from $82K (BTC ~$83.9K at the time). Drivers: return of ETF money (~$5B inflows over 12 months forecast), softer dollar, Treasury long-end buybacks. Does NOT expect a new ATH within 12 months. Earlier 2026 path: $143K -> $112K (Mar) -> $82K (Jul, bear case $53K). | medium | Bullish | $113k |
| 2026-09-23 | Glassnode research team, Glassnode (The Week On-chain: Escape Velocity)Cited the mean MVRV price near $96.7K as an overhead reference level during the September breakout (which later failed). | short | Neutral | $96.7k |
| 2026-09-07 | Prediction market, Polymarket ('What price will bitcoin hit in 2026?')Probabilities of touching level in 2026 (as of Sep 7, BTC ~$79K): $85K 73%, $90K 51%, $100K 26%, $120K 10%, $150K 3%, $200K <=1%; downside $70K 52%, $65K 35%, $60K 25%, $30K 4%. Live October odds NOT verified. | medium | Neutral | – |
| 2026-09-07 | Prediction market, Kalshi ('Bitcoin price at end of 2026')Year-end buckets (Sep 7): $70-75K 9.9%, $75-80K 12.5%, $80-85K 11.9%, $90-95K 7.7%, $95-100K 5.6%, $100-105K 3.7% -> mass centered roughly $70-90K. 'Hit $50K before $100K?' 18% vs 83%. | medium | Neutral | $70.0k – $85.0k |
| 2026-08-31 | Markus Thielen, 10x ResearchCalls $1M BTC by 2030 'mathematically impossible' given capital inflows required. | long | Bearish | – |
| 2026-08-28 | Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant'The Bitcoin bear cycle is over' - Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator printed +0.042 on Aug 26, first positive since early Oct 2025 (was -1.244 at the Feb 5 low of $60K). Short-term pullback still possible. Reverses his May 2026 view that the bear could run to early 2027. | medium | Bullish | – |
| 2026-08-26 | Gautam Chhugani, BernsteinBase case ~$125K by end-2026 (pushed $150K from end-2026 to mid-2027). Debasement trade: ending of 40-yr rate decline, ~$40T US debt -> policymakers favor debasement. ~50% drawdown shallower than prior 75-90% = maturity. Model: multiple of marginal production cost, four-year-cycle based. | medium | Bullish | $125k |
| 2026-08-26 | Gautam Chhugani, BernsteinMid-2027: $150K base / $200K bull (new ATH). Cycle peak 2029: ~$300K base / $500K bull. ~$1M by end-2033 maintained. | long | Bullish | $150k – $300k – $500k |
| 2026-08-21 | Geoff Kendrick, Standard CharteredYear-end 2026 target $100K (cut from $150K in Feb) now at risk of being too LOW; could head toward $126K ATH before year-end, recovery potentially accelerating after Oct 6. Rally driven by short liquidations; low open interest leaves room; ETF inflows recovering. (BTC $76.8K at the time.) Feb note expected a dip to ~$50K first. | medium | Bullish | $100k – $100k – $126k |
| 2026-08-18 | Matthew Sigel, VanEck (Mid-August 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck)8 of 12 capitulation signals firing -> late-stage drawdown; forward returns from such clusters beat baseline only at 1-year horizon (small sample). Realized vol ~27% vs ~80% long-run. BTC closed Aug 11 at $63,549. Late Aug (Benzinga via Webull) Sigel suggested 2026 could be a bottoming year and midterms won't derail BTC. | medium | Bullish | – |
| 2026-08-15 | Benjamin Cowen, Into The CryptoverseFour-year cycle not dead: base case bottom ~1 year after the Oct 6 2025 top, i.e. October 2026; an Aug 15 post reportedly narrowed it to Oct 23-27 2026 (French-language source, unverified). Bottom timing call, not a price target; implies a turn higher afterwards. | short | Neutral | – |
| 2026-07 | Markus Thielen, 10x ResearchBase case: true cycle low in Q4 2026, possibly ~October (bears bottom ~360-380 days after peak). Most-likely target $55K, possibly $46-47K (two reports conflict). Needs a shift away from Fed-hike pricing for a sustained rally. Exact date of note not verified. NOTE: price is ~$82K and has not revisited these levels since summer. | medium | Bearish | $46.0k – $55.0k – $55.0k |
| 2026-07 (approx) | James Check, CheckonchainMarket hammered out a base in the low $60Ks and rallied through three primary lines of bear defence, while asking whether it is just a bear-market rally; July saw a marginally lower low at $58K plus a breakdown in Strategy preferred/common, but downside momentum waning. Most detail is paywalled; exact post/date not pinned. | medium | Neutral | $58.0k |
| 2026-07-07 | Lyn Alden, Lyn Alden Investment StrategyMain scenario: no new ATH in 2026; weakest sentiment of the cycle, nothing external to 'rescue' BTC, only gradual liquidity growth (no 'nuclear print'). Longer term expects return to six figures over the next couple of years if adoption holds. | medium | Bearish | – |
| 2026-05 (approx, unverified) | Arthur Hayes, MaelstromReturn to the $126K Oct-2025 ATH is a 'foregone conclusion' after the $60K floor; above $90K dealer gamma/call-writer hedging makes the rally explosive. Driver: AI-capex credit expansion forcing bank/central-bank credit creation. Risks: overhyped AI IPO, anti-AI politics. Essay date not confirmed. | medium | Bullish | $90.0k – $126k – $126k |
| 2026-Q2 | NYDIG research, NYDIGScenario (explicitly not a forecast): 2022-style ~70% decline from $126,080 ATH bottoming ~October 2026 (four years after last cycle low); noted low 2025 vol could mean a shallower drop. Not playing out so far at ~$82K. | short | Bearish | $38.0k – $39.0k |
| 2026-04/05 | Cathie Wood, ARK Invest~$1.2M by 2030 (bull ~$1.25M; $750K labelled base or bear depending on source - conflicting). Argues 85%+ drawdowns are over due to institutional adoption. | long | Bullish | $750k – $1.2M – $1.3M |
| 2026-02/03 | Willy Woo, Independent on-chain analystSTALE. Liquidity-based: mid-bear in March, bear most likely ends Q4 2026 with bullish momentum in H1 2027; primary cycle-low scenario ~$45K (severe stress ~$30K). No later update found. | medium | Bearish | $30.0k – $45.0k – $45.0k |
| 2026-02 | Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorganSTALE. Volatility-adjusted gold parity implies ~$266K 'long term' (called unrealistic for 2026). Production cost estimate ~$77K acts as soft floor. No Sep/Oct 2026 note found. | long | Bullish | $266k |
| 2026-02 | PlanB, Independent (S2F)STALE. S2F unchanged, long-term ~$500K; outlined four bear paths (classic 80% to 'lows are in'); follower poll favored $50-60K retest. | long | Bullish | $50.0k – $500k |
| 2026-02-12 | Geoff Kendrick, Standard CharteredLong-run $500K target maintained but pushed to 2030 ('our previous near-term targets are wrong'). | long | Bullish | $500k |
| 2026-01-05 | Tom Lee, FundstratSTALE. End-2026 $200-250K; four-year cycle breaking down, ETF demand dominant. No Aug-Oct 2026 update found; needs ~+145% in ~10 weeks. (Fundstrat's Sean Farrell: H1 $60-65K low hit, year-end ~$115K per CoinGecko roundup, Jul 2026.) | medium | Bullish | $200k – $250k |
| 2025-12-19 | Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity InvestmentsSTALE. Four-year cycle intact, Oct 2025 = cycle top; 2026 a consolidation/'off' year with support $65-75K (line in the sand $65K, below that $45K). No 2026 update found. The 2026 low (~$58-60K) undershot this band. | medium | Bearish | $65.0k – $75.0k |
| 2025-12-18 | Alex Thorn, Galaxy DigitalSTALE. 2026 'too chaotic to predict'; options implied equal odds of $50K or $250K by end-2026; $250K by 2027 plausible. No update found. | medium | Neutral | $50.0k – $250k |
| 2025-12 | Matt Hougan, BitwiseSTALE. Four-year cycle broken; new ATH in 2026. No Aug-Oct 2026 revision found; increasingly contested by price. | medium | Bullish | $126k |