Predicted vs reality

Every forecast the model publishes is kept and scored when its date arrives. Before the first ones mature, the record below replays the same method over 2018–2026, using only the data that was available on each date. A good forecaster lands inside its likely range about half the time and inside its wider range about four times in five.

Record updated 2026-10-21. 2 published runs so far.

4 weeks ahead

Simulated history, 188

Inside the likely range goal 50%: 52%
Inside the wider range goal 80%: 79%
Typical miss: ±10%
Lean: No systematic lean
Closer than “no change”: 50% of the time
Right direction: 52%

4 months ahead

Simulated history, 176

Inside the likely range goal 50%: 57%
Inside the wider range goal 80%: 82%
Typical miss: ±27%
Lean: Too low by 4%
Closer than “no change”: 49% of the time
Right direction: 55%

4 years ahead

Simulated history, 32

Inside the likely range goal 50%: 28%
Inside the wider range goal 80%: 50%
Typical miss: ±87%
Lean: Too high by 46%
Closer than “no change”: 63% of the time
Right direction: 100%

Forecasts against the real price

Actual price Landed in the likely range In the wider range Missed Published prediction

Each bar is one forecast, drawn at the date it was for: the thick part is its likely range, the thin line its wider range, the dot its median. Hover a bar for the numbers. The 4-week view shows the last 18 months and the 4-month view the last four years; the scores above cover the whole record.

Published predictions

Every checkpoint from runs that went live on this site, with the outcome once its date has passed.

Made	For	Ahead	Price then	Predicted	Likely range	Actual	Result
2026-10-20	Nov 17 2026	4 weeks	$81,407	$82,097	$79.0k – $86.7k	–	Due in 27 days
2026-10-21	Nov 18 2026	4 weeks	$83,250	$84,136	$81.7k – $87.4k	–	Due in 28 days
2026-10-20	Feb 17 2027	4 months	$81,407	$80,682	$69.0k – $102k	–	Due in 119 days
2026-10-21	Feb 18 2027	4 months	$83,250	$83,304	$73.2k – $99.7k	–	Due in 120 days
2026-10-20	Oct 20 2027	1 year	$81,407	$119,164	$84.7k – $223k	–	Due in 364 days
2026-10-21	Oct 21 2027	1 year	$83,250	$120,404	$85.6k – $225k	–	Due in 365 days
2026-10-20	Oct 19 2028	2 years	$81,407	$183,844	$124k – $344k	–	Due in 729 days
2026-10-21	Oct 20 2028	2 years	$83,250	$185,442	$125k – $347k	–	Due in 730 days
2026-10-20	Oct 19 2029	3 years	$81,407	$252,527	$171k – $472k	–	Due in 1094 days
2026-10-21	Oct 20 2029	3 years	$83,250	$253,986	$172k – $475k	–	Due in 1095 days
2026-10-20	Oct 19 2030	4 years	$81,407	$293,524	$198k – $549k	–	Due in 1459 days
2026-10-21	Oct 20 2030	4 years	$83,250	$294,857	$199k – $551k	–	Due in 1460 days

What the model has learned

Before each run the model scores its matured predictions and corrects itself: it shifts the median if it keeps missing in one direction, widens or narrows the ranges until they hold the right share of outcomes, refits the model blend with its live misses counted double, and re-weights the gauges by how well each one called the next four weeks.

4 weeks forecastWaiting for the first published prediction to mature.
4 months forecastWaiting for the first published prediction to mature.
4 years forecastWaiting for the first published prediction to mature.
Gauge weightsCollecting: 0 of 20 daily readings have matured. Until then the gauges use their default weights.